Monday, April 20, 2020

Going for Gold


It should come as no surprise that a 50% increase in the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet in a short time, plus trillions in fiscal stimulus from the government, mixed with historic unemployment and GDP forecasts, have made gold a great investment.  I would like to highlight though, that gold was a great investment last year as well, gaining nearly 20%, at a time of solid economic growth, no inflation, the highest interest rates we’ve seen in a decade (for at least part of the year), and all-time high stock prices.  A time when nothing was going “wrong” and people scratched their heads as to why anyone would invest in gold.

Similarly, after bottoming at about $275 an oz in 2001, gold began steadily changing trend and moving higher, doubling from 2004 to 2007, at a time of amazing economic growth, little inflation, and all-time highs in stock prices.  Nothing was seemingly wrong then either and people were scratching their heads as to why anyone would invest in gold.  And then it happened.  The same then as it did now.


  • No, gold going up was not predicting a global pandemic.  Increased capital flows into safe-haven assets like gold, WERE however predicting a market that was way over owned, over leveraged, over enthusiastic, and ripe for a crash regardless of what the catalyst or “black swan” ended up being.  This wasn’t totally oblivious, people saw this, people said this.  If you’re paying attention, they really do ring a bell at the top.  CNBC spent months just before the crash pumping an article on social media about all the cash Buffet has and how they were baffled that he wasn’t panicking to spend all of it right away.  Bob Moriarty, in very plain English said we are going to crash, VERY badly, multiple times within 6 months of it happening.  Countless Wall Street big wigs proclaimed "cash is trash" in financial media.  The sudden action of he fed pumping in October should have been a very big clue as well. The market’s parabolic move higher in Jan 2018 convinced me to bail.  It crashed soon after, in the first batch of 1000 point down days we had ever seen.  Over the next 2 years, I missed out on an additional 17% in the SPX, assuming I could have nailed selling right at the high.  I’m certainly not crying over that lost opportunity.


The market has been problematic for a good couple of years before this happened, and in the grand scheme of things, cashing out 2 years ago when things crashed the first time doesn’t seem so stupid now.  Looking at it now, holding on for that extra little bit was just exacerbated greed, and that is exactly what market tops are.  You could look back now at a chart of the SPX and see that last, dying, bullish effort in stocks as it hit the “exacerbated greed” point, or you could have just been looking at what the gold chart was doing.  It wouldn’t have told you “Mortgage Crisis!” or “Global Pandemic!”, but the reasons behind price movements are immaterial.  Financial news spends 8 hours a day trying to explain the reason why the market is down today.  There are more sellers than buyers.  That’s it.  CNBC doesn’t know the motivations behind every one of those buyers or sellers any more than you or I do.  They spend 8 hours speculating on the cause when all you need to know is the result: Where is the money moving?  Regardless of your feelings for a particular investment or asset class, no one in history has ever invested their money into any asset for no particular reason.  There is always a reason.  So, when you see gold start increasing dramatically, and there is no obvious “problems” in sight…get ready.

I think that gold is prepared for a multiyear bull run.  It has already gone up a lot, and is likely due for some cooling off here, as it has done in the past.  There are 2 scenarios I am looking for in regard to a pullback in gold that I will talk about.  In addition, the gold miners have severely underperformed the metal.  With gold moving as dramatically higher as it is now, their performance can at best be described as sub-par.  But when things are moving lower, the miners have gotten destroyed.  They are undervalued based on almost any metric you can come up with.  I believe after a pullback in the metals, you will see likely the last of “stupid cheap” prices in miners.  Even if that is not the case, I believe the profit potential on a modest rise in the miners is easily 30-50%.  You’d be hard pressed to find that kind of potential and value anywhere else in the market right now.

I am going to focus on analyzing some individual miners in this article and I am going to classify them in 3 categories.  The first is “Investable”.  These are the gold assets you can buy and just hold as long-term investments in your portfolio for the next few years.  The second category is “Undervalued”.  These guys are the ones that I believe are undervalued miners that are benefiting from higher profit margins and increased reserves that the market is not accounting for in their stock prices, because investors are used to suboptimal performances from them. These stocks are in a solid position for great gains in an environment of higher precious metals prices but could very easily give a lot of their gains back in the event of a nasty correction. These I would buy while the “wind is to my back” with gold and silver prices trending steadily higher, expecting a hefty 30-50% profit, maybe more, but I would not get greedy or overstay my welcome with these, so I would recommend taking profits on large spikes higher near price target points.  The third category will be “Speculative”.  These are mostly small miners, development companies, miners with high costs and debt, in which a higher metal price could really “save the day” for some of them, resulting in much higher gains.  But the overall risk is much higher as well.  These stocks you should do extensive research into before buying.  These are the kind of stocks where you could easily pick 10 and put an equal investment in all of them, betting on higher metals prices, then watch some go up 50%, others lose 50%, some double, and others go bankrupt.  Then you are left being right about your overall thesis of buying gold and miners and having 0% profit to show for it overall.  They could have spectacular moves higher or go completely bankrupt, so be aware of the risk.

First let’s look at the gold chart.  In 2008, in the midst of a liquidity crunch, gold got slammed 30% from $1000/oz to $700.  After that, it began steadily moving higher.  The first 2 major peaks gold made on its bull run that it began in 2009 corrected about 15%; from $1000 to about $850, then from $1225 to about $1050.  After that, corrections lower were 9%, then 8%, then 6.5%, finally culminating with very shallow pullbacks and a massive blast off to $1920/oz that marked the peak of the bull move two and a half years later.  Ironically today, after hitting $1700 as the Corona-virus fears peaked, gold again was a victim of the need to raise capital and plunged $250 to $1450/oz.  This time it was only about 15% down, before turning around and then tapping $1800.  Now we’ve hit the real ceiling everyone has been eyeing, the level gold tapped 3 times in 1 year from Nov 2011 to Oct 2012 before collapsing.

Gold is now up about 50% in 18 months, and it’s unlikely we power through this level to test all time highs without a pullback.  Right off the bat, we can see we have significant support at about the $1550 level, which interestingly, is about 15% lower from $1800.  This would be a logical first target for a pullback.  It is not that gold might follow the EXACT same trajectory it did from 2009 to 2011, it is simply how bull markets are born and die.  They begin in skepticism, mature in optimism and die in euphoria.  And the gold chart from 2009-2011 perfectly paints that picture of investor sentiment.  Every move at first corrected down more because even the bulls didn’t believe in it and figured “Ok, this has to be it, sell”.  In the middle of the bull run, the idea that it was a bull market became more common place, “Yeah it’s been trending higher, so you should buy it on dips.”  Finally, there are very little dips.  Investors are piling in, and “analysts” calling for extreme gains are all over financial news.  And then that’s it.  A blow off top spiking higher and a crash.  It won’t necessarily be the same, but there’s a good chance it will rhyme.  So, we will be looking for bigger pullbacks for now that we expect to diminish in the future as the bull market goes on.  A 15% pullback to strong support at 1550 seems logical.



But there is another scenario this picture might be painting.  It looks right now, like gold has formed a picture-perfect “bowl” formation over the last decade and could be setting up to form a “handle” on a massive “cup and handle” formation.  Cup and handles are widely regarded as one of the most consistent, bullish, chart patterns and the longer a formation is, the more “solid” it is said to be.  On a cup and handle, a pullback to form a “handle” on this chart pattern should not fall below about 50% of the “depth” of the bowl.  The top area is $1800, the low of the bowl was $1050.  This gives us a depth of $750, indicating that a handle should not dip below $1800, minus $375, or about $1425.  Again, very interestingly we can see our strongest support level at around the “breakout” point of $1400-1450.  This also is the level gold caught at in the massive “corona liquidation” we saw a few weeks ago.  After the handle forms, a break above the $1800 resistance level gives us a target that is equal to the breakout point plus the “cup” depth.  In this case, that is $1800 + $750 = $2550/oz.  That’s about 75% higher from the anticipated pullback area for the handle at $1400.  It’s very interesting how these pictures paint a pretty clear and logical scenario that oddly aligns with support points and previous lows.  So which road gold decides to go down will be interesting to watch, but either way it looks obvious that you should be a buyer as we pullback to the 1550 level and lower.

Investable

Onto the gold stocks and we are going to start with one of my favorites, RGLD.  After plunging to 60, RGLD has nearly doubled your money already if you were quick enough to buy it there for the whole 5 mins it lasted.  We have rebounded to 110, but are still within a range of declining highs since last summer, after peaking at nearly 140.  Looking back, 60 was so beautiful you will likely never get it again, but all is not lost if you missed that opportunity.  There is strong support at about 90 on RGLD, and I would expect to see at least that level in a decent pullback.  From there, support is a stepladder down, coming in about every $5, at 85, 80, 75, and 70.  Our expectation would be for 80-90.  This is a good position to buy into RGLD and they have proven over the last decade that this is a stock you can invest in long term that will do well in good times for gold, and also do well in the not so good times as their business continues to grow and make money.  Ultimately, we would be looking for a retest of the all-time highs after a correction, back near 140, giving you a profit of nearly 50% on this name.


Franco-Nevada (FNV) has been a difficult one recently.  I bought FNV a while ago and it has soared.  Since then, I have been wanting to add to my position, but have found it difficult because it has never really fallen to a level that I believe offers a great value.  This is often the case with “leaders” in a sector.  They will continue to outperform while giving very little opportunity to buy.  FNV has rocketed to a new high as gold taps 1800, which few gold stocks have actually done, proving it really is one of the best names to own for gold.  The difficulty is the buying point.  On a correction, it would be unlikely to get a great pullback on this.  It will likely be shallow and bottom between 90-100.  That I think is a good level to buy at, while of course, leaving some dry powder in case of a deeper correction.  I would have a target of around 140 on this stock as well, giving a great profit potential from a buy at 90.


WPM is the other great royalty/streaming company that has weathered the bear storm in gold and silver much better than most miners and offers a great upside potential.  This again has been difficult to “buy” because corrections are always shallower than I would like, but it is again, a sign of why you should be in the leaders.  Too many times people make the mistake of buying a laggard in a sector because the value is still there after a move higher in their competitors.  Investors expect it to play catch-up to the rest of the industry.  What usually happens is the laggard continues to lag, while the leaders continue to lead.  You’re not “pulling one over” on the market and getting a “deal”.  Laggards lag for a reason.  WPM is high quality for a reason.  With a decent correction I think it’s possible to snatch up WPM at about 26.  I would love to get 22-24 level, but I doubt that will happen, as it will likely keep trading for a premium.  My target for this one would be back to it’s all time high at around 40, giving it about 50% profit potential.


Newmont mining is the only miner I’m putting in the investable category and for good reason.  Miners are subject to cost increases, host country instability, literally 1000 different variables that impact their business that is not the case with royalty companies.   NEM is the biggest gold miner in the world with about 7.8 million ozs of gold expected to be mined this year, and 15 operations in 9 different countries.  8 of their mines are in geographically safe places like the USA, Canada, and Australia.  The acquisition of Goldcorp last year was one of the best buyouts I ever could have hoped for in the gold sector, combining Newmont’s management with the addition of Goldcorp’s assets.  For years, it performed like a lot of the other gold miners, getting killed when gold goes down, and drastically underperforming the metal.  That has turned now.  NEM has a great production, a great portfolio of assets, great management and looking at the stock chart, it shows.  NEM is up 100% since this time last year. And in addition, they have raised their dividend and will likely continue to do so as gold goes higher.  The last few days have been almost parabolic as it has shot higher and tested it’s all time high from 2011 at 62/share.  I would be looking for a test of around 50-45.  There is support there at 45 and around 40, but this would be very lucky if we pulled back to there.  This is one you should own, so keep dry powder and buy small amounts as it declines.  If we never see 45-40, at least you got some at 50-45.  If we do, you can buy a little more.



Undervalued

First up on undervalued is going be one that I was debating putting in the “investable” category, Sandstorm (SAND).  I decided to put it in undervalued instead because the companies in “investable” are all much larger, more established companies with bigger operations, and SAND is a little different, and more of a growth story.  I do believe it is investable for a longer-term horizon if you are bullish on gold, but I also believe there are protections in the other “investables” like much larger and more solid revenue from their operations and dividends that SAND is not equal to (yet).  If you’ve been invested in gold stocks over the last decade, you’ve probably noticed how much better the royalty model has performed and have been dying for more companies to invest in of that business model versus miners.  SAND offers the best of both worlds, because you have the superior royalty model coupled with the growth story of a junior miner.  As they continue to expand their assets and revenue stream, you have a solid growth play and gold play.  I was lucky enough to add to my position in this during the recent plunge at about $4.40, but I doubt we will see those extremely low levels again.  The $5 area offers good support and is where I’d look to buy more of this.  Again, keep dry powder in case you get a better opportunity, but I wouldn’t depend on it, so don’t get to greedy.



AG is a stock I have been a shareholder of for over a decade, buying in the $2-4 range from 2009-2010, and getting a nearly 10-fold increase by 2011.  They have not been slouching during the decline period in precious metals, increasing their production from about 10 million ozs a year in 2012-13, to over 20 million expected this year.  Their estimate for their all-in sustaining cost is about $14.50/oz for 2020, earning them about $1/oz right now where silver prices are.  The margins for the silver miners are not spectacular, and that is not news to the market which is why most have lagged gold miners.  But with a production level that is about 50% higher than just 3 years ago, their leverage on higher silver prices is much more massive than ever before.  The market might be expecting $1 in profit or less off of their production right now, but if you are eyeing a silver price that is closer to $20/oz after a correction here in the metals, then that profit margin is 500% higher then it is now.  Looking at the chart, those lines I drew at the bottom might seem all clustered together like there is not much difference between the support levels, but I doubt we will see the spike low area near $4 again.  Buying at $6 and below is a great price I believe.  If you can nail it at about $5.50, I think you have a 100% profit margin on this, as I believe that a conservative target is back to recent highs near 11, especially if were looking at $20 silver.



Yamana, AUY has performed nicely over the last year or so and I expect that to continue.  They were able to sell an asset that was underperforming for them and use the money to pay off debt and have since also increased their dividend.  Their production of 972k ozs of gold last year is expected to modestly increase to 1 million ozs a year by 2021 with an expected all in sustaining cost of around 1000/oz, giving them significant profit at these gold prices.  There is not much of a “growth” story here, but there is another undervalued gold miner here with solid operations and production looking at $700 in profit per ounce at these levels.  There is good support in the 3.25-2.75 region, (we will call it about $3).  The recent highs around 4.75 and 4.50 also seem like a logical bullish target after a pullback, giving a nice opportunity for a 50% gain from $3.


SSR Mining has performed very well over the last year or so.  I have not followed this company as closely over the years as others but I have been paying closer attention this past year, and I like what I am seeing. Their 3 major mines are in the USA, Canada and Argentina, and are expected to produce 360k ozs of gold and about 6.5 million ozs of silver this year.  Last year they reported record production which equivalated to 420k ozs of gold equivalent ozs at an all-in sustaining cost of around $960/oz.  After hitting 19, it crashed in the liquidation panic down to 9 and is now stalling out on the rebound at 17.  9 would be an ambitious target, but I think we can see 11-12, and that’s where I would like to start picking some up.  With their solid production and costs, I’d expect a target back near the highs, giving a 50%+ profit potential. 


PAAS has been another very good performer.  They had a production of 25 million ozs of silver in 2019 and 560k ozs of gold at an all-in sustaining cost of 10.50 and 950 respectively.   Their original guidance for 2020 would be about a 10% increase in silver production, to about 27.5 million ozs, and about a 18% increase in gold production up to about 650k ozs.  (I say original guidance because most companies have pulled their guidance due to COVID-19).  Their anticipated all in costs for 2020 work out to a silver equivalent of about $5.50/oz, giving them significant profit at these levels.  The stock has performed very well over the last year or so, going from 11 in June to a high of 26 just in February.  It plunged back to 11 in the liquidity scare, and then rebounded nearly 100% to 21, and now sits at about 19.  Again, 11 would be great but I won’t hold my breath.  Silver has lagged and the high silver exposure in PAAS could drag it down on a pullback, so I would be looking for about 15-14 as a target to buy at.  At that point, a rally back above 20 is giving you nearly 30-50% in profit which I think is not an extreme expectation. 



HL, Hecla has performed better than I would have expected.  I bought some at about 1.60 and doubled my money within a year.  On this past plunge downward, it bottomed at about 1.50 and bounced up 66% to 2.50.  This is one that could just as easily have been in the “speculative” category, but with solid production, low cash costs, and the market performance, I think it is superior enough from those other “speculatives” to be put in the undervalued list.  There is solid support here around 1.50, and like a lot of the silver miners, has noticeably underperformed gold, so I would in this case, be expecting a retest of the lows in that support area.  I believe at around 1.50, you are buying an undervalued mining company with a 50-100% upside potential, but I should note, I wouldn’t place a huge investment in this name, but it is worth owning some.


CDE is another that has surprised me on the upside but performed about as expected on the way back down.  This is another stock that was borderline “speculative”, but a few things are giving it the “undervalued” edge, including solid production on their operations and their diversification from a mostly silver producer, to about a 55/45 split between silver and gold.  CDE has stopped reporting all-in sustaining costs, but as of not too long ago, they were about 18/oz, making them very high in the industry.  Cash costs are less, but all in sustaining cost factors in development costs for new operations they are working on, which are very high right now at CDE, as they are burning through their reserves very quickly.  The benefit to high cost producers is when metals begin to rally to their cost level.  At 14, no one is counting on any profit from CDE.  At 18, they are now break even and the markets assumption of no profit or a significant loss begins to change rapidly, and these miners play catch up really fast.  After going from a little under $3 in June and tripling to a little over $8, it’s been one of the best performers last year that I have in my watch list.  But as metals pulled back and the panic ensued, it lost all of its 2019 gains already in 2020.  The outperformance of gold to silver is going to help their costs this year, and if you are looking for silver at $20/oz, then the market is severely undervaluing CDE right now.  This is another I think could retest its panic lows near $2.50, and I would like to pick some up at $3 or less.  I believe the move to $8 was a little over enthusiastic so I would not target that area on a move back up.  I would be looking for an upside target around 5-6.50, still giving a 100% profit from a buy of 2.50-3.



GFI.  Over the last few decades everyone has done everything they possibly can to get as far away from South Africa as possible.  Although there is more gold in SA than nearly anywhere else in the world combined, political instability makes it not an attractive place to do business.  In addition, many mines in SA are very old and go miles into the ground to produce gold, making costs very high.  The upside is reserves.  With such high costs, it may only be economical to mine 20 million ozs at a price of 1500/oz.  but at 1800/oz, now there could be another 10 million economical ozs, and that often happens to these SA miners.  GFI has diversified away from SA as well, now having operations in Ghana and Australia.  They have solid production and even pay a dividend which is always nice to have.  My biggest gripe here is hedges.  The company has hedged 200 million liters of oil at a price of 58/ barrel for their operations going out until 2022.  They have also hedged a significant amount of their gold production at around 1300/oz.  When profit margins are thin, it can be enticing for management to hedge costs and profits so that they are at least marginally profitable, rather than roll the dice and risk bankruptcy.  This would be fine if anyone was ever able to get it right.  Looking now, buying your oil for this year at 58 and selling part of your gold production at 1300 sounds really stupid, because it is.  Their operations are solid though, and I think in a pullback to near 4.50-5, there is a target of about 6.50-7.50.  This is not as enticing as other miners, so it shouldn’t be a focus on your portfolio.



HMY I believe offers a better value to GFI, without the missteps of bad management.  This is another borderline “speculative” so I wouldn’t build a huge position in this, but I believe at these gold prices, their reserves and profit margins are very good, and I would love to buy a little of this near the $2 level.  This is another that has been one of the best performers on my watchlist, tripling from it's low near 1.50.  I believe this is due to the significant leverage to gold prices that South African mines have. I would target an area of about $3-4 as a price target, and I think that is conservative.



Speculative

MUX has had a very hard time.  Its biggest benefit has been CEO Rob McEwen as it’s biggest shareholder, holding 20% of the entire stock while taking $1 salary a year.  He has invested 164 million into the company of his own money.  The entire market cap right now is about 400 million.  He could buy the other 80% outright and own the company privately for an additional 320 million.  He wouldn’t do that, because he is smart enough to know that he will never get the value for his company privately that he would on the public market, but that does in some way leave a “put” in the stock price.  Their production costs are quite high at over 1200 for their all-in sustaining cost, with not much in actual production.  The stock has performed horribly for a decade, losing over 90% of its value after falling from a high of $10 in 2011.  This stock has already doubled off its low of 50 cents to now $1, and could do something similar if we have a retest near that 50 cent level, leaving an enticing profit potential, but less enticing when you consider the risk, and the many other miners with better portfolios out there.  Bite on this if you really want to, but I wouldn’t buy much or expect much.


IAG was one of my favorites in 2009-2011.  Unfortunately, since that time their production level has dropped, their costs have increased and they’ve made some foolish bets on their hedges, hedging oil costs at around 57/barrel.  It bottomed at 1.15 in 2015 then rocketed to over 7 the next year before losing it all again.  This past panic plunge brought it nearly back to that 1.15 level, bottoming at 1.40 I would be compelled to buy a very small amount at $2 or less, with an expectation of about $3 on a rally, maybe even $4.  I would not count on much here, but with an 850k/oz a yr production, there is profit potential in this one if you get it cheap, but I wouldn’t expect it to outperform it’s peers. 


EXK has performed dreadfully.  Their all-in sustaining cost is at $21/oz.  Production declined 27% last year to 7.1 million ozs of silver equivalent.  There is nothing here I see worth it.  However, a greatly rising silver price, close to their cost price would certainly make the market reevaluate its economic feasibility and could see a very big rise, if indeed production declines start turning a corner as management believes.   It’s lost half of its value since September with a recent low of 92 cents.  It could easily break that and head lower, then rebound 100%, but I believe there is better stuff to buy out there.


FSM and EXK have been pretty equal in their stock performance for the last couple of years.  There has been nothing here that is impressive.  This is a stock I also own some of and I have been very disappointed and do not have much faith in a rebound.  It bottomed recently at 1.50 then doubled to 3.  There is certainly money to be made if you want to try and catch a falling knife, but there is money to be made in safer stuff too.



Honorable and Dishonorable mentions

There are some I am just not going to take the time to analyze and I will briefly explain why.  GOLD, Barrick/Randgold merger, has been a historically terribly run company.  Barrick hedged oil costs in 2007 at 100/barrel and hedged their gold earlier in the decade at about $400/oz.  After NEM bought Goldcorp, the new Barrick launched a hostile takeover of NEM with an offer below the market price.  The new CEO tried to explain why they “shouldn’t have to pay a premium” to NEM shareholders to take their assets, because the “synergies” would be more profitable for them with the merger.  This is two companies with historically bad management merged into one dreadful one.  The stock has performed pretty well actually despite this, but their dumb decisions are like a ticking time bomb I would be avoiding in fear of what “brilliant” idea they come up with next.

GSS is a high cost producer in Ghana, that would greatly benefit from gold at these prices, but it hasn’t translated to the stock performance.  There is better stuff out there.  GPL has done nothing but go down for years and nothing has impressed me at all about the company’s portfolio or management.  NGD has been another dreadful story that continues to get worse.  There is nothing here to buy and they will likely get bought out for pennies or go bankrupt.  AU has performed quite well actually but is another story of bad management and ill-timed hedges.  A lot of the time, these companies can perform based on their assets, so long as management stays out of the way.  I’d avoid this as well.  TRX has been developing the same property for decades, and after personally working for them for almost 5 years, I do not see any advancement in reserves, any timeline on production, (let alone earnings) or any royalty contracts which was its entire purpose when it was formed.  I have serious doubts this will ever reach any meaningful level of production or ever prove any meaningful deposit, and don’t advise gambling on a 50-cent stock simply because a big wig like Jim Sinclair is the CEO.  OR is a royalty company which I would have loved to own, but they recently purchased a mine they intend on producing themselves, steering away from the royalty model for some unknown reason.  In addition, many believe they are biting off more than they can chew with this purchase and that the value is just not there.  Again, I’d avoid.  I’d especially avoid any company or management who thinks mining themselves is a better alternative than royalty contracts.

So, there it is.  Almost all the miners on my watch list broken down with what I believe are very good buy points if we can get a decent correction in the metals, with (what I believe) are conservative price targets on a move back higher.  I may be wrong about the “last chance to buy miners at stupid cheap prices”.  The market might already be catching on, so it might be advisable to buy more lots in smaller amounts starting a little sooner.  Gold has already pulled back nearly $100 from the high and miners have not gotten crushed like they have in the past.  Earnings on a lot of these stocks for Q1 will start coming in next month and I believe they are going to be very good across the board, so take an opportunity on pullbacks to buy and hold the investables, buy and sell the undervalued ones on big swings higher, and be very careful about speculating with the others.  If you lighten significantly in your undervalued category you will book profits while still maintaining a solid gold position in some of them and long-term positions in your investables.  As always, be careful out there in the market and stay safe.  

-Jonathan M Mergott

**Full disclosure, many of the stocks that I mentioned I am an owner of personally, in all 3 categories.  Do your own due diligence on ALL investments.  Don't blindly listen to me or anyone else.

5 comments:

  1. Thanks for the very insightful post. You use the expression " There are more sellers than buyers" . Although I agree with this , particularly from a supply & demand perspective, aren't the buyers equal to the sellers? Just an odd ball comment on my part but I have often wondered about . Thanks again

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  2. You are correct. For every sale there is a buyer, and every buy, a seller. What I am referring to is really more emotional. If there are 1000 sellers with 50k shares of xyz, and 50 buyers wanting 1k shares, it's really going to depend on the greed of a buyer to pay any price, or the fear of a seller to sell at any price, just to be rid of it,but the sheer number of shares wanting to be sold and sellers wanting to sell is always going to overwhelm the bids in such a situation. In terms of actual transactions, it's always one for one. But in the instance of this recent market crash for example, when sellers had millions of shares to dump and buyers were non existent, the buyers could pretty much name their price and the desperate sellers could take it or choose not to. Those thin and very far between bids is exactly why you see -1000 point down days. The massive supply of stocks that want to and could be sold in this market,vs cash available to buy them is what worries me the most.

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  3. Need to dig a little deeper on CDE. Look at the size of their debt vs any free cash flow.
    Company headquarters was moved to Chicago so the Presidents wife could see the bright lights and Opera.
    Reliable sources have said.

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  4. Hi Jonathan. Almost one month has just happened since this article, what´s the main driver for this slow-grew of the gold price during May? Regards.

    ReplyDelete
  5. I do believe all of the ideas you have introduced in your
    post. They're very convincing and can definitely work. Still, check out Gold Buyers Miramar

    ReplyDelete